Model Study

The full 2025 regular season, stripped down to the signals behind the total.

This is a simpler historical page: final score, model total, how far off the projection was, and the pace and rest inputs that shaped the read.

Table

The actual total, the projected total, and the context that sat underneath it.

Date Matchup Season phase Game shape Travel Altitude Recent avg total Model Final Difference Model vs final Away pace Home pace Poss. Away pts Home pts Away rest Home rest